Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Brock WrightReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Bills
Right now, Brock Wright’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 14.5 (-110) after it opened @ 12.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 35.0) versus TEs this year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, yielding 6.06 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards
20
Receiving Yards
