Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).

Pros

The Houston Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Kyle Allen this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.4 plays per game.
Brandin Cooks has been a less important option in his offense’s passing attack this season (22.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (28.2%).
Brandin Cooks has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
Brandin Cooks has notched many fewer receiving yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards