Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Bills
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (+102) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 11.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.6% to 74.4%.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
96
Receiving Yards
96
Receiving Yards
