Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has run fewer routes this year (89.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (77.9%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to earn 8.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
A.J. Brown has accumulated a lot more receiving yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).

Cons

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
A.J. Brown has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (97.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards