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Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 12

Dolphins vs. Texans

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 275.5 (-110) after it opened @ 286.5 (-114).

Pros

  • Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for many more yards per game (275.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
  • Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 67.4% to 70.7%.
  • Tua Tagovailoa’s passing effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, totaling 8.87 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.84 rate last season.
  • The Houston Texans pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, giving up 8.28 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
  • The Houston Texans defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.
Cons

  • The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.

Projection
THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards

Previous NFL Same Game Parlay Picks – Week 12 Sunday Slate Next Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight
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