Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Siemian from EV Insight

Trevor SiemianPassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Siemian’s passing yards prop is set at 176.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 176.5 (-115) after it opened @ 187.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chicago Bears will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The New York Jets defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.24 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.
The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the league versus the New York Jets defense this year (66.0%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
146
Passing Yards