Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 225.5 (-110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Trevor Lawrence has thrown for many more yards per game (240.0) this year than he did last year (213.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
222
Passing Yards
222
Passing Yards
