Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the OVER up to 263.5 (-103) after it opened @ 259.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.1 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Cons

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Tom Brady has been among the worst per-play passers in football this year, averaging just 6.68 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 24th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards