Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the OVER up to 263.5 (-103) after it opened @ 259.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.1 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
- Tom Brady has been among the worst per-play passers in football this year, averaging just 6.68 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 24th percentile.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards
267
Passing Yards
