Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam DarnoldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Panthers vs. Broncos
Right now, Sam Darnold’s passing yards prop is set at 177.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 177.5 (-110) after it opened @ 182.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
- The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.22 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Sam Darnold has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with a 59.9% Completion%, grading out in the 8th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
199
Passing Yards
199
Passing Yards
