Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Ryan TannehillPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 210.5 (-110) after it opened @ 201.5 (-115).
Pros
- Ryan Tannehill’s passing efficiency has been refined this year, averaging 8.23 yards-per-target vs just 7.17 figure last year.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 9th-least yards in football (just 197.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards
224
Passing Yards
