Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 219.5 (-110) after it opened @ 218.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the league vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.8%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has given their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 57.4%.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.40 yards-per-target: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards