Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 281.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 281.5 (-110) after it opened @ 285.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.1 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes has passed for many more yards per game (347.0) this season than he did last season (255.0).
Patrick Mahomes has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with an impressive 66.5% Completion%, checking in at the 76th percentile.

Cons

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, yielding 7.24 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
272
Passing Yards