Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Dolphins vs. Texans
Right now, Kyle Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 227.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Kyle Allen this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.4 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Houston Texans O-line has given their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards
241
Passing Yards
