Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 286.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 286.5 (-115) after it opened @ 281.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-most in the league.

Cons

Justin Herbert has been among the least efficient QBs in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.49 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 18th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
299
Passing Yards