Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cardinals vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 286.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 286.5 (-115) after it opened @ 281.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Cons
- Justin Herbert has been among the least efficient QBs in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.49 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 18th percentile.
- The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
299
Passing Yards
299
Passing Yards
