Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jimmy Garoppolo from EV Insight

Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards

Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 244.5 (-110) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for significantly more yards per game (246.0) this year than he did last year (207.0).
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with an impressive 66.8% Completion%, ranking in the 79th percentile.

Cons

The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 32.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards