Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 252.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 252.5 (-120) after it opened @ 244.5 (-115).

Pros

The Raiders are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Derek Carr has attempted 36.5 throws per game this year, checking in at the 76th percentile among QBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 9th-most yards in football (250.0 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Derek Carr’s throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 61.7%.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards