Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-115) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for many more yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
Cons
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
- The New York Jets defense boasts the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 4.18 yards-per-carry.
- The New York Jets defensive tackles grade out as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to run defense.
- The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
