Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael CarterRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Patriots vs. Jets
Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Michael Carter has earned 42.1% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
- The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Jets are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
- Michael Carter’s rushing efficiency (3.83 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (17th percentile among running backs).
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
