Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Michael Carter from EV Insight

Michael CarterRushing Yards

Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Michael Carter has earned 42.1% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Jets are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Michael Carter’s rushing efficiency (3.83 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (17th percentile among running backs).
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards