Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Melvin Gordon from EV Insight

Melvin GordonRushing Yards

Right now, Melvin Gordon’s rushing yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (+108/-148).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-148) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst safety corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Cons

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Melvin Gordon has been much less involved in his offense’s running game this year (38.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (51.7%).
Melvin Gordon has run for significantly fewer yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Rushing Yards