Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Melvin GordonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Melvin Gordon’s rushing yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (+108/-148).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-148) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
- The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst safety corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Melvin Gordon has been much less involved in his offense’s running game this year (38.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (51.7%).
- Melvin Gordon has run for significantly fewer yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Rushing Yards
38
Rushing Yards
