NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-110) after it opened @ 77.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 20.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
- Josh Jacobs has been much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this year (85.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (67.7%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
- Josh Jacobs has run for substantially more yards per game (93.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.94 seconds per snap.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
93
Rushing Yards
93
Rushing Yards
