Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darrell HendersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Saints vs. Rams
Right now, Darrell Henderson’s rushing yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-139) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-most yards in the league (134 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 5th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 34.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Darrell Henderson has been a much smaller part of his offense’s run game this year (38.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (57.1%).
- Darrell Henderson has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Rushing Yards
34
Rushing Yards
