Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Falcons vs. Bears
Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-135) after it opened @ 44.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has rushed for a lot more yards per game (68.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).
- Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing efficiency has gotten a boost this year, notching 5.36 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.95 figure last year.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (146 per game) against the Chicago Bears defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Cordarrelle Patterson to be much less involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (30.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
- The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
