Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Saints vs. Rams
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-137) after it opened @ 65.5 (-125).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 42.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to notch 17.2 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has been given 59.1% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 91st percentile among RBs.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Alvin Kamara has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (56.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
- The Los Angeles Rams defense boasts the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.09 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
