Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-125) after it opened @ 43.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Higbee’s 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 30.2.
Tyler Higbee has accrued a lot more receiving yards per game (42.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
Tyler Higbee has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (30.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Tyler Higbee’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 66.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards