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Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

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Tyler Higbee

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 11

Saints vs. Rams

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-125) after it opened @ 43.5 (-120).

Pros

  • THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among TEs.
  • Tyler Higbee’s 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 30.2.
  • Tyler Higbee has accrued a lot more receiving yards per game (42.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
  • Tyler Higbee has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (30.0 per game).
  • The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • Tyler Higbee’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 66.4%.

Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards

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