Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 76.5 (-110) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to total 10.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has posted significantly more air yards this season (74.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Travis Kelce has accrued significantly more receiving yards per game (89.0) this season than he did last season (59.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63%) vs. tight ends this year (63.0%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards