Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Panthers
Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 9.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 9.5 (-115) after it opened @ 9.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a giant 13-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- Tommy Tremble has earned a colossal 10.1% of his offense’s air yards this year: 80th percentile among tight ends.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Panthers have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.6 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Tommy Tremble’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 54.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
