Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-125).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to earn 8.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a much bigger part of his team’s pass attack this week (27.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (21.6% in games he has played).
- Terry McLaurin has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 70.0 yards per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
Cons
- The Commanders are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Terry McLaurin has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (93.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
