NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Tanner HudsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Giants vs. Lions
Right now, Tanner Hudson’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 12.5 (-125) after it opened @ 12.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Giants have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
- The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the 2nd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (68.0) versus tight ends this year.
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency vs. TEs this year, surrendering 9.58 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the league.
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 8.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Giants are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 46.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The New York Giants offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards
15
Receiving Yards
