Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Vikings vs. Cowboys
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 140.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 8.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- T.J. Hockenson’s 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 48.2.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.4% to 70.5%.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 39.0) versus TEs this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, conceding 5.44 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
