Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 89.5 (-110) after it opened @ 86.5 (-114).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Stefon Diggs has posted significantly more receiving yards per game (110.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).

Cons

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
113
Receiving Yards