Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 6.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth has notched far more air yards this year (56.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Pat Freiermuth’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 68.4%.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) vs. tight ends this year.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
