Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Vikings vs. Cowboys
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 93.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 93.5 (-110) after it opened @ 94.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 140.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Justin Jefferson has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (116.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).
Cons
- Justin Jefferson has put up far fewer air yards this season (114.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 72.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 140.0) vs. WRs this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
117
Receiving Yards
117
Receiving Yards
