Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-125) after it opened @ 23.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accumulate 3.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among TEs.
Hunter Henry has been among the most effective receivers in the league among TEs, averaging an impressive 8.91 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Hunter Henry’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this year, accumulating 4.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 2.48 mark last year.

Cons

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Hunter Henry has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards