Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Greg DulcichReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) versus tight ends this year.
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
