Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-145) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 5.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
George Kittle has been among the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a terrific 47.0 yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Cons

The 49ers are a big 10-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.6 plays per game.
George Kittle has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (40.0 per game) than he did last year (58.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards