Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Foster Moreau from EV Insight

Foster MoreauReceiving Yards

Right now, Foster Moreau’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-125) after it opened @ 35.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Foster Moreau has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (79.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.3%).
Foster Moreau has notched many more receiving yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (28.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.94 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. tight ends this year, giving up 6.84 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a lowly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards