Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Devin Duvernay from EV Insight

Devin DuvernayReceiving Yards

Right now, Devin Duvernay’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (+105) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).

Pros

Devin Duvernay has been much more involved in his team’s pass attack this year (13.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (8.0%).
Devin Duvernay has notched far more air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Devin Duvernay has accrued substantially more receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (70.9%) versus WRs this year (70.9%).

Cons

The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards