WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Devin DuvernayReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Panthers
Right now, Devin Duvernay’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (+105) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- Devin Duvernay has been much more involved in his team’s pass attack this year (13.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (8.0%).
- Devin Duvernay has notched far more air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Devin Duvernay has accrued substantially more receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (70.9%) versus WRs this year (70.9%).
Cons
- The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
