Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-106/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-114) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 6.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Deebo Samuel’s ability to generate extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, averaging 11.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 8.66 figure last year.

Cons

The 49ers are a big 10-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.6 plays per game.
Deebo Samuel has totaled far fewer air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards