Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to total 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (70.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
Dawson Knox’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a measly 7.85 yards-per-target compared to a 8.89 rate last year.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.8%) to TEs this year (60.8%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards