NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to accumulate 5.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among TEs.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line has given their QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.10 seconds per snap.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 39.0) versus TEs this year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. TEs this year, conceding 5.83 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
