Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 73.5 (-115) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to notch 11.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Davante Adams has posted significantly more air yards this season (125.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.94 seconds per snap.
Davante Adams has accumulated many fewer receiving yards per game (83.0) this season than he did last season (96.0).
Davante Adams’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.3% to 60.0%.
Davante Adams’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, averaging a mere 8.11 yards-per-target compared to a 9.79 figure last season.
The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in football (just 118.0) to WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards