Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to total 9.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (172.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
Cons
- Courtland Sutton has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 56.7% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 12th percentile among wideouts
- Courtland Sutton has been among the least effective receivers in football, averaging a measly 7.40 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 24th percentile among WRs
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
