Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Robinson from EV Insight

Allen RobinsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Allen Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (+100) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Robinson to accumulate 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Robinson to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing attack this week (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.5% in games he has played).
Allen Robinson’s receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.8% to 64.1%.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
Allen Robinson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (52.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Allen Robinson has been among the least efficient receivers in football, averaging a lowly 7.08 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 19th percentile among WRs

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards