Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Lazard from EV Insight

Allen LazardReceiving Yards

Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-105) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
Allen Lazard has gone out for fewer passes this season (89.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to accumulate 6.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
Allen Lazard has compiled many more air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Allen Lazard’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 69.9% to 63.8%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards