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Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Zach Wilson from EV Insight

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Zach Wilson

Zach WilsonPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 11

Patriots vs. Jets

Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-135) after it opened @ 190.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Jets are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • Zach Wilson’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 56.0% to 60.3%.
  • The New York Jets O-line has given their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Cons

  • The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in football against the New England Patriots defense this year (64.2%).
  • The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
  • The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection
THE BLITZ
185
Passing Yards

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