WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Commanders
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 213.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 213.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-130).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency this year, yielding 8.32 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.69 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.
- The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Commanders are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Taylor Heinicke’s throwing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.0% to 61.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
204
Passing Yards
204
Passing Yards
