Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 225.5 (-120) after it opened @ 225.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-most yards in the NFL (275.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in football versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (76.6%).
Cons
- Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 55.8%.
- Russell Wilson has been among the worst per-play quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a mere 6.64 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 24th percentile.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards
253
Passing Yards
