Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 225.5 (-120) after it opened @ 225.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-most yards in the NFL (275.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in football versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (76.6%).

Cons

Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 55.8%.
Russell Wilson has been among the worst per-play quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a mere 6.64 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 24th percentile.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards