Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matt Ryan from EV Insight

Matt RyanPassing Yards

Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (+112/-154).

The public has bet the OVER up to 234.5 (+112) after it opened @ 228.5 (-110).

Pros

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.8 plays per game.
Matt Ryan has thrown for substantially more yards per game (286.0) this season than he did last season (235.0).

Cons

The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 10th-least yards in the NFL (just 214.0 per game) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest rate in the NFL versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (63.6%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, giving up 6.32 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
285
Passing Yards