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Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matt Ryan from EV Insight

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Matt Ryan

Matt RyanPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 11

Colts vs. Eagles

Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (+112/-154).
The public has bet the OVER up to 234.5 (+112) after it opened @ 228.5 (-110).

Pros

  • The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.8 plays per game.
  • Matt Ryan has thrown for substantially more yards per game (286.0) this season than he did last season (235.0).
Cons

  • The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 10th-least yards in the NFL (just 214.0 per game) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest rate in the NFL versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (63.6%).
  • The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, giving up 6.32 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection
THE BLITZ
285
Passing Yards

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