Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 209.5 (-105) after it opened @ 203.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in football.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have utilized some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Cons

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league vs. the New York Jets defense this year (65.0%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards