Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Panthers
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 206.5 (-120) after it opened @ 192.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in football versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.9%).
- The Carolina Panthers safeties profile as the 4th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens have incorporated play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
- Lamar Jackson has thrown for many fewer yards per game (207.0) this season than he did last season (238.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
193
Passing Yards
193
Passing Yards
